What is an adoption curve?

An adoption curve shows how many people use a new product over time. When a company makes something new, it wants many people to buy it, but not everyone immediately buys it. The adoption curve is a graph that shows the different groups of people who start using the product, from the first few buyers to the last.

The stages of adoption

There are five main parts to the adoption curve:

Innovators are the first people to try a new thing. They like taking risks and trying new ideas. Only a few people are innovators for any new product.
Early adopters: This small group buys the product next, after the innovators. They like leading the crowd and being seen as trendsetters. Other people look to early adopters to see what’s cool.
Early majority: Now, a lot more people are starting to buy. They see that the innovators and early adopters like the product. The early majority are careful but try new things before the average person.
Late majority: This is an even bigger group that waits until something is very well known before buying. They don’t like risks, and many products never reach the late majority.
Laggards: These are the last people to use the new product—laggards like tradition and proven things. By the time they start using something, most people already have it.

Why the adoption curve matters

Companies use the adoption curve to understand how their product is doing. If they know which part of the curve they’re at, they can adjust their strategy:

Innovators and early adopters: Focus on building buzz and getting good reviews
Early majority: Focus on showing value, reliability, and growing market share
Late majority: Focus on keeping the product relevant as something new replaces it

Knowing the curve also helps predict how many products they’ll sell. The early stages have few buyers. If sales slow down before reaching the early majority, the product might be in trouble. Companies want the curve to look like a hill with a tall peak in the middle majority stages.

The origins of the adoption curve

The adoption curve idea started with farming in the 1940s. Two rural sociologists, Bryce Ryan and Neal Gross, studied how farmers began using a new corn seed. They saw the stages that we now call the adoption curve.

Then, in 1962, a professor named Everett Rogers wrote a book called “Diffusion of Innovations” that used Ryan and Gross’s ideas for all kinds of new products, not just farming. He said the curve could apply to anything, from gadgets to fashion to ideas.

The adoption curve became very popular with businesses in the 1990s. Geoffrey Moore wrote a bestselling book applying it to technology products called “Crossing the Chasm.” He said the hardest part is moving from the early adopters to the early majority. He called this gap “the chasm.”

Since then, the adoption curve has been a basic idea in business and marketing. It shapes how companies think about selling new products.

Using the adoption curve strategically

Smart companies design their whole strategy around the adoption curve stages. Different phases need different approaches.

Selling to innovators and early adopters

Innovators and early adopters are adventurous. They want the hot new thing and are okay with a few flaws. The product doesn’t have to be perfect. The key is getting their attention:

Send products to influencers for reviews
Sponsor events where innovators gather, like tech conferences
Hire spokespeople that early adopters admire
Emphasize the cool factor in ads and packaging

If the early groups don’t like the product, it’s probably doomed. But if they love and show it off, that sets the stage for wider success.

Capturing the early majority

“Crossing the chasm” to the early majority is the make-or-break challenge. These people need to see good reasons to buy:

Show how the product is better than other options
Share impressive data on things like sales growth
Highlight great reviews and testimonials
Expand distribution to mainstream stores
Work out any remaining bugs or problems
Offer discounts or incentives to buy now

The early majority has to feel the product is a safe, smart choice. They won’t buy just to look cool—the messaging shifts from hype to trust.

Winning the late majority

By the late majority, new competitors have appeared. The product is no longer novel. The key is staying top of mind:

Emphasize value and reliability in ads
Keep prices competitive
Refresh branding so the product still feels current
Do loyalty programs to retain happy customers

At this stage, growth slows down. But the late majority is huge, so there’s still lots of money to be made. Even as sales eventually decline, the cash from this phase can fund innovations.

Ignore the laggards

Most experts say not to bother much with the laggards. When they buy, profits are slim, and the product is almost outdated. Let them be the last to get on board. Focus energy on making the next big thing for the innovators to discover.

The limits of the adoption curve

The adoption curve is handy, but not every product follows the same path. Some caveats to keep in mind:

Many products never get past the innovator stage
Some products skip straight to the majority, like a hit movie
The curve applies to a specific market, not the whole world
The time frame of the curve varies a lot for different products
Sometimes, the curve is more U-shaped than a hill

So, while it’s a helpful framework, the adoption curve isn’t a guaranteed roadmap. Businesses need a strong overall strategy, not just a focus on the curve.

The future of the adoption curve

The adoption curve concept is decades old, but it’s still relevant. It might be more useful than ever. The pace of change keeps getting faster. New products are launched constantly. Attention spans are shorter. Companies have to understand adoption to stay competitive.

At the same time, the stages might be blurring. Early adopters can act with lightning speed. Social media lets trends spread fast. One viral hit can push a product into the mainstream overnight. The traditional curve might be more compressed.

Still, the basic idea has its uses. People adopt new things in waves. Move too slow, and a competitor will win the early fans. Go too fast, and the product might flame out. The adoption curve is evolving, but its central insights still hold. It’s a classic concept that every marketer needs to know.