Zimbabwe inflation math raises brows
Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate in ZiG terms fell sharply to 32.7 per cent in October 2025, down 50 percentage points from 82.7 per cent in September, according to the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency. The drop occurred despite minimal movement in the exchange rate and persistently high consumer prices, raising questions about whether the decline reflects genuine disinflation or statistical base effects.
The ZiG exchange rate changed little, moving from US$1:ZiG26.6899 at the start of October to ZiG26.5087 by mid-month. Meanwhile, annual inflation, measured in US dollars, stood at 13 percent in October, nearly unchanged from 13.4 percent in September. Month-on-month, US dollar inflation rose slightly to 0.3 per cent.
In ZiG terms, overall prices actually declined by 0.4 per cent month-on-month—the first such drop in recent memory—though food prices rose 0.7 per cent. Non-food prices fell 0.9 per cent. The sharp annual drop contrasts with International Monetary Fund and World Bank forecasts of 89 percent inflation for 2025, but aligns more closely with the African Development Bank’s projection of 23.6 percent. Analysts suggest the discrepancy may stem from methodological shifts or base-year distortions rather than real economic cooling.
